Let’s imagine that you and a friend have spent the afternoon playing your favorite board game, and now, at the end of the game, you are chatting about this and that. Something your friend says leads you to make a friendly wager: that with one roll of the die from the game, you will get a 6. Straight odds are one in six, a 16 percent probability. But then suppose your friend rolls the die, quickly covers it with her hand, and takes a peek. “I can tell you this much,” she says; “it’s an even number.” Now you have new information and your odds change dramatically to one in three, a 33 percent probability. While you are considering whether to change your bet, your friend teasingly adds: “And it’s not a 4.” With this additional bit of information, your odds have changed again, to one in two, a 50 percent probability. With this very simple example, you have performed a Bayesian analysis. Each new piece of information affected the original probability, and that is Bayesian [updating].
fur coat very much 😍 💓 fashionable. Quality 👍 good. I recommend! The size matches, I took it for my 50 XXL; Cool! Thanks a lot 🙏 💕
Surprisingly surprised by the quality of the jacket, I am really happy to choose a larger size.
Kind, fashionable nozzle. Not on the ice, without warming. But now the searches are in trend and wear them little before the summer))For parameters 88/65/88 height 165, size M is just perfect like me. Not very oversized and not tight.. The sleeves are good for length, but if you are a higher height, it can be shortened, so it is better to take a bigger size. I recommend in general.
girls, if you don’t want a beautiful, warm, comfortable and soft fur coat, don’t take it, in general, the best fur coat! 😍 😍
Good quality for money. Better than i expected. Thick and well made for price. Doesn’t look cheap.
Fur coat matches🤩Beautiful and quality) came relatively quickly, in two weeks. Thanks seller)
I recommend to take it in a larger size, otherwise everything very well, good quality
Bomb fur coat💣Do not be afraid, order) ordered on my 42-44 - L so that it is not too short. Delivery to the linen area 12 days.
The fur coat is standard, beautiful, but thin, up to minus 5, as they already wrote in the reviews. My parameters are 90/67/90 on me size L
